The future of trade is increasingly uncertain due to evolving political landscapes, including rising protectionism, shifting geopolitical alliances, and growing tensions over industrial policy and supply chain resilience. In this context, the relationship between trade and sustainability becomes even more unpredictable, as governments balance economic competitiveness with climate commitments. Some nations are integrating sustainability into trade policies, while others prioritize short-term economic gains, creating a fragmented global approach. To provide insight into these complexities, the European Climate Foundation developed the report Future of Trade in a Net Zero World, which outlines four distinct scenarios exploring how trade and sustainability might evolve. These scenarios offer a framework for understanding the possible pathways ahead, helping policymakers, businesses, and civil society navigate the challenges and opportunities of a rapidly changing global trade system.
Thanks to funding offered by the European Climate Foundation (ECF), researchers from the CISDL were able to provide legal solutions that would foster each scenario via the “Toward Net Zero in 2040: Providing Legal Options for ECF’s ‘Future of Trade in a Net Zero World’ Report”. Special attention was given to the “Green” scenario, which is the desired situation for the future of trade. This includes a more cooperative, peaceful, equitable world where the trade is aligned with the climate goals. Noting that “Climate change is no longer a distant threat; it is a present reality with profound and far-reaching consequences”, the CISDL report provides suggestions for legal provisions that can be adopted by States to foster the desired Green Scenario and urgently tackle the nefarious effects of climate change.
However, the report is still in draft form, which can be accessed here, and the CISDL welcomes feedback from interested stakeholders. If you wish to contribute, please contact, please contact CISDL Programme Manager Matheus Garcia.